On January 1 of this year, the fiftyplusone generic ballot polling average had Republicans at 42% and Democrats at 46%. As of today, the numbers are Republicans 43%, and Democrats 51%. If the remaining undecided voters continue to break this way it could be a very rough mid-term for team Trump. Although it may seem […]
A question prompted by Jonathan Lemire in The Atlantic. The answer, I think, is that Trump understands other people only by imagining how he would behave in their situation. In the case of Trump and Xi, Trump knows that Xi has the upper hand in their relationship. And so he asks himself how he would […]
The polling averages do seem to show Trump’s approval going down, accompanied by shifts against Republicans in the generic congressional ballot and in polling of individual Senate races. For example, Trump’s approval had been sinking slowly in the fiftyplusone average, dropping one or two points from June 1 through mid-September. And then in the past […]
As I mentioned in my previous post, some Democrats in Congress are pushing for AI regulation. Last week, Cass Sunstein endorsed the creation of a federal agency to regulate AI. He emphasizes that his thoughts are “preliminary, incomplete, and tentative.” It is, however, useful to be clear about what is missing. I am open to […]
Yesterday: Susan Collins expressed her disapproval of Trump’s tone regarding Canada. She is working with the President to lessen the impact of the trade war on her constituents in Maine. Congressional Democrats have called for a special session to regulate AI. But they have no idea how to do this. So here’s an alternative. How […]
I don’t write much about AI; it’s above my pay grade. But last night I couldn’t sleep and I read this piece by Scott Alexander responding to this post by Nicholas Decker. To simplify greatly (read the originals – they’re both very interesting): Decker argues that we cannot fix problems with AI in advance. Instead, […]
Last night on Truth Social, our President: I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They […]
Foreign policy has always been the area in which Trump was likely to do the most damage to America and the world. In 2024, it was clear from his first term that, if re-elected, he would undermine our alliances and violate our treaty commitments. This would embolden our adversaries, reduce our influence with our friends, […]
David Remnick’s interview with a DSA co-chair is an out-of-body experience.
According to the political data site fifty plus one, Trump currently has a net disapproval of 24 points. At the same time, the Democrats remain unpopular. The net disapproval of the Democrats has hovered around 15 points, about the same as the Republicans. The Democrats lead in the generic ballot, but only by 6 points […]